Scientists revealed, Wednesday, that global carbon dioxide emissions, including those from burning fossil fuels, are on track to reach a record level this year, further deviating the world from its path to avoid more destructive extreme climate phenomena.
The "Global Carbon Budget" report which was released during COP29, hosted by Azerbaijan, states that global CO2 emissions will reach 41.6 billion tons in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tons last year.
Most of these emissions result from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. The report notes that emissions from fossil fuels only will amount to 37.4 billion tons in 2024, an increase by 0.8% from 2023.
The remaining emissions come from land use, which includes deforestation and wildfires. The report was overseen by the UK University of Exeter, with contributions from more than 80 institutions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, the lead author of the study and a climate scientist at the University of Exeter warned that without immediate and drastic global emissions cuts, "we will directly reach the 1.5°C threshold, exceed it, and continue rising."
Under the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 1.5°C to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
This requires sharp reductions in emissions every year from now until 2030 and beyond.
Instead of achieving this, fossil fuel emissions have risen over the past decade, while land use emissions have declined during this period. However, severe droughts in the Amazon region this year led to wildfires, increasing land-use emissions by 13.5% to 4.2 billion tons.
Some scientists have voiced concern that this slow progress means that achieving the 1.5°C goal is no longer realistic.
On another hand, researchers said that this year's emissions data showed evidence of some countries rapidly expanding renewable energy use and electric vehicles.
The progress, however, has been uneven, with emissions from wealthy industrialized nations decreasing, while emissions from emerging economies continued to rise.
A debate took place yesterday, Tuesday, at COP29, between countries about who should lead the global transition away from fossil fuels, which account for about 80% of global energy.
It is noteworthy that U.S. emissions, the largest producer and consumer of oil and gas in the world, are expected to decrease by 0.6% this year, while EU emissions will drop by 3.8%.
Meanwhile, India's emissions are set to rise by 4.6% this year, driven by increased energy demand due to economic growth.
China’s emissions, the largest emitter and second-largest oil consumer in the world today, are expected to rise slightly by 0.2%. Researchers noted that China’s oil emissions may have peaked due to the rise of electric vehicles.
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also expected to rise by 7.8% this year, as air travel continues to recover from the decline in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
