Officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the India Meteorological Department have warned that climate change could cause a 6-10% reduction in rice and wheat production in India.
Forecasts, published by Business Standard, indicate escalating food security concerns in India, where millions rely on affordable grains. In 2023 and 2024, India harvested approximately 113.29 million tons of wheat and 137 million tons of rice to support its 1.4 billion people, with 80% depending on government-subsidized grains.
According to the report, global warming is weakening Western Disturbances including weather systems that bring winter rains to northwest India. This could lead to severe water shortages for billions living in the Himalayan region and surrounding plains, according to M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Crop Yield Projections
Data from the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) predicts significant impacts on crop yields in India:
- Wheat yields could decline by 6-25% by 2100.
- Irrigated rice yields are projected to decrease by 7% by 2050.
- Irrigated rice yields are expected to drop by 10% by 2080.
The decline in agricultural production poses an existential challenge to millions of Indian farmers, over 80% of whom own less than two hectares of land.
Warmer Oceans
Rising sea temperatures are causing fish to migrate to cooler, deeper waters, negatively impacting fisheries and jeopardizing coastal communities. Ravichandran noted that climate change "creates significant challenges for fishermen, affecting their earnings and putting their livelihoods at risk."
Additionally, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events and reducing the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecasts.
“The time to predict such events has decreased from three days to just one and a half days,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department.
The 'Third Pole' Crisis
The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas is worsening water scarcity in the region. Ravichandran has warned that reduced snowfall and increased melting in the Himalayas will result in water shortages for more than two billion people in India and China. The Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, known as the Third Pole, are vital sources of water, serving over one-seventh of the world’s population.
India has seen a 0.7 degrees Celsius increase in average temperatures since 1901, according to climate data. Additionally, 2024 was the hottest year on record in India, with the average minimum temperature rising by 0.90 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Experts emphasize the urgent need for immediate action to combat climate change and safeguard the future.
