Around 7 million people worldwide die each year due to air pollution, according to the Clean Air Fund. As global warming intensifies, the relationship between air pollution and temperatures intensifies, leading to the impact of heatwaves on air quality.
In this regard, a research group from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry conducted a simulation to understand the evolution of mortality rates under heat and pollution throughout the 21st century. They published their results in the journal "Nature Communications" on October 30, 2024.
Analysis
The study's authors conducted some analyses to calculate their predictions for deaths due to high temperatures and pollution, relying on previous data to build more accurate forecasts through digital simulation.
They found that extreme heat could increase death rates to 10.8 million people by the end of the century, while pollution-related death rates could rise to 19.5 million people annually. This implies that by the end of the century, climate or air pollution could lead to a total mortality rate of 30 million deaths annually.=
Variations
Researchers also noted that the causes of death, whether due to air pollution or extreme heat, vary between different countries around the world, depending on several factors. For example, countries in South and East Asia are witnessing the strongest increases in mortality rates driven by ageing and worsening air pollution.
Other high-income countries like North America, Western Europe, and Australia are likely to experience a rise in mortality rates due to extreme heat, rather than air pollution. In countries like Central and Eastern Europe and some parts of South America, high temperatures pose a greater risk compared to air pollution.
The researchers predict that health risks associated with extreme heat will increase by the end of the century, surpassing those associated with air pollution. This underscores the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions that cause rising temperatures and exacerbate heatwaves. There is an urgent need to achieve the Paris Agreement goal, which stipulates that global average temperatures should not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.
