The "2024 Emissions Gap Report" was released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on October 24, highlighting the significant gap between words and actions regarding emissions reduction targets.

The report opens with a powerful phrase: "No more hot air... Please," meaning "enough with the empty talk," calling for an end to promises and words without real implementation. It urges closing the growing emissions gap, warning that humanity is heading toward a dangerous situation, akin to playing with fire as temperatures continue to rise.

Paris Agreement

At the end of 2015, the climate negotiation table was set ablaze in Paris during the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21). This conference was highly anticipated after years of preparation, as a new agreement was expected to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which emerged from COP3. Indeed, the historic Paris Agreement was adopted, with key goals including limiting the average global temperature rise to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. This goal could only be achieved through countries' efforts to reduce emissions and preserve the remaining carbon budget.

To assess progress in this regard, UNEP releases the Annual Emissions Gap Report (EGR), a scientific-based report that outlines the gap between future greenhouse gas emissions, assuming countries fulfill their climate pledges, and where countries stand in terms of avoiding the worst effects of climate change. The report also presents opportunities for closing the emissions gap.

2024 Emissions Gap Report

The 2024 report revealed several key findings related to climate action policies:

Ineffective Policies

The report pointed out that the policies currently being followed around the world are utterly ineffective and could lead to catastrophic results. If countries do not raise their climate ambition and efforts in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2025, global temperatures could rise by 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of this century, compared to pre-industrial levels, with a 66% likelihood. These pledges will be updated ahead of COP30 in Brazil in 2025.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres commented on the findings: "The Emissions Gap report today is clear: we are playing with fire. But there is no more time to waste. Time has run out." He emphasized the need to ramp up ambition, implementation, and funding starting with COP29.

Consequences

The report highlighted the severe consequences of delayed climate action, particularly as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise compared to 2019 levels. In 2023, emissions reached 57.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, contributing to the ongoing rise in temperatures, which are linked to extreme weather events such as hurricanes, heavy rains, floods, wildfires, and other environmental disturbances that threaten the lives of humans and other living beings.

The report also stated that to achieve the 1.5°C target, emissions must be reduced by 7.5% annually by 2035. Achieving a 2°C limit could be possible with a 4% annual reduction in emissions.

Possible, But...

The report demonstrated that achieving the 1.5°C target by 2030 is technically feasible by cutting 31 gigatonnes of emissions, which equals 52% of emissions in 2023. Emissions could be reduced by up to 41 gigatonnes through the widespread deployment of renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaic solar power and wind energy, which could provide about 27% of the total reduction potential by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Supporting forests and ecosystems and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as called for in COP28, are also crucial actions.

The necessary investments to achieve net-zero emissions are estimated to range between $0.9 trillion and $2.1 trillion annually from 2021 to 2050. These investments would also generate returns by avoiding damages related to climate change, air pollution, and negative impacts on human health. The report pointed out that the countries responsible for the majority of global emissions, namely the G20 members, should bear the greatest burden.

Designing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The report stressed the importance of transparency in the NDCs presented by each country. These contributions should include more ambitious targets and address the gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol, ensuring transparency and accuracy across all sectors.

The 2024 Emissions Gap Report comes just ahead of COP29, providing a valuable opportunity for countries to consider it during climate negotiations and take its recommendations seriously