Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming. The Emissions Gap Report 2024 indicates that Earth's average surface temperatures could increase between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, leading to catastrophic outcomes. This temperature rise is expected to accelerate the melting of Earth’s ice caps, causing sea levels to rise.

A recent study by a research group examined how sea levels are influenced by rising temperatures under the highest emission scenarios. They concluded that by 2100, global sea levels could rise between 0.5 and 1.9 meters, as published in Earth’s Future on December 11, 2024.

Challenges in Projections

Estimating sea level rise has long been challenging due to the reliance on climate models that include complex phenomena like melting glaciers and unpredictable events such as ice shelf collapse. These uncertainties make it difficult for researchers to provide precise estimates or probabilities for sea level changes.

Innovative Fusion Approach

To overcome these challenges, the researchers developed a new projection method called the "fusion approach." This method combines the strengths of existing models with expert opinions and utilizes data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. By integrating all this information, more reliable and clearer estimates can be achieved.

Findings

The study estimates that under low emissions, sea levels are likely to rise by 0.3 to 1 meter by 2100. Under high emissions, the rise could be between 0.5 and 1.9 meters.

These estimates are higher than the projections by the IPCC, which suggested a rise of 0.3 to 0.6 meters under low emissions and 0.6 to 1 meter under high emissions by 2100. Regardless of the scenario, these changes could have significant and dire consequences for the planet.