A study found that strong winds and heavy rains may lead to a greater spread of desert locusts, posing a serious threat to world food security.

The study published in the journal "Science Advances" suggests that human-induced climate change may lead to the intensification of weather patterns, causing greater risks of spreading this "migratory plague" of disease.

The desert locust - a short-horned grasshopper found in some dry regions of North and East Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia - is a migratory insect that moves in swarms of millions over long distances, destroying crops and causing famine and food insecurity.

A swarm of 80 million locusts can consume in one day enough food crops to feed 35,000 people.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization describes these locust swarms as "the most destructive migratory plague in the world."

Huge Financial Impacts

The large-scale spread of locusts can have huge financial impacts. Responding to the locust outbreak that occurred in West Africa from 2003 to 2005 cost over $450 million, according to the World Bank, and the outbreak led to crop losses estimated at around $2.5 billion.

The study reveals that dealing with such outbreaks "will increasingly be difficult to prevent and control" in warm climates.

Xiao Qiang He, the study's author and assistant professor at the National University of Singapore, said that recurring extreme weather events due to climate change could hinder the ability to predict locust outbreaks.

However, he expressed hope that the study would help countries understand and address "the effects of climate variability on locust dynamics, particularly in the context of its implications for agricultural productivity and food security," and urged for improving regional and continental cooperation among countries and anti-locust organizations to respond quickly and build early warning systems.

Fathi Abdel Rahman, a scientist at the International Center of Insect Physiology and Ecology who was not part of the study, warned that the widespread spread of the desert locust due to climate change would greatly threaten livelihoods in affected areas due to decreased food production and increased food prices.

Locust Outbreaks and Climate Change

To assess the risks of locust outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East and their connection to climate change, scientists analyzed desert locust outbreak events from 1985 to 2020 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Locust Hub.

The analysis built a data-driven framework to examine insect patterns to determine the causes that may lead to long-distance disease spread.

They found that 10 countries, including Morocco, Kenya, Niger, Yemen, and Pakistan, experienced the majority of locust outbreaks among the 48 affected countries.

The worst desert locust outbreak in 25 years hit East Africa in 2019 and 2020 when the insects invaded hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland, causing damage to crops, trees, and other plants, affecting food security and livelihoods.

The researchers also found a strong link between the size of the desert locust outbreaks and weather and land conditions such as air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, and winds. Desert locusts are likely to invade arid regions that receive sudden heavy rains, and the number of insects during an outbreak is heavily influenced by weather conditions.

The phenomenon of the El Niño, a natural and recurring climate phenomenon that affects weather worldwide, was also strongly linked to larger and more severe desert locust outbreaks.

Douglas Tallamy, an entomology professor at the University of Delaware who was not part of the research, explained that irregular weather and rainfall lead to surges in vegetation, resulting in massive locust population growth, adding, "With the increase in this fluctuation, it is logical to predict an increase in locust outbreaks as well."

A Very Strong Wake-Up Call

Paula Shrewsbury, an entomology professor at the University of Maryland, believes that the study's results serve as another example of what should be a very strong wake-up call for communities worldwide to come together to mitigate climate change and its impacts and to implement response strategies to global events such as the growing threats of desert locusts.

The study found that areas at particular risk, such as Morocco and Kenya, remain highly vulnerable, but locust habitats have expanded since 1985 and are expected to grow by at least 5% by the end of the twenty-first century, as anticipated in West India and Central Asia.

For example, the Rub' al Khali desert in southern Arabia was historically not a common place for desert locust outbreaks, but it later became a hot spot.

The desert experienced a locust outbreak in 2019 following uncontrolled breeding after hurricanes filled the desert with freshwater lakes.

Study author Xiao Qiang states that countries affected by desert locust outbreaks are already struggling with extreme weather conditions, such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, and the potential escalation of locust risks in these areas could exacerbate existing challenges.

He added: "Failure to address these risks could increase pressure on food production systems and worsen global food security issues."