In the far south, where the uninhabited ice continent lies, only a few bases have been established by major countries for research purposes.

Many unique species live there, but their lives are threatened by the collapse of the ice cover, which is causing Antarctica to lose its white coat day by day.

According to NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), Antarctica loses about 150 billion tons of its ice cover annually due to several factors, the most prominent of which is rising temperatures, leading to sea level rise and threatening biodiversity.

On the other hand, instances of ice separating from the ice shelf emerge, resulting in the formation of icebergs. This process is sometimes referred to as "calving." It is common, occurs continuously, and has increased recently due to climate changes.

In this case, a massive or small iceberg may be born. As for small icebergs, their formation is clear to scientists, but the biggest challenge they face is understanding the events that lead to the formation of massive icebergs, which require the separation of about 100 square kilometres of ice. This is due to several challenges, the most important of which is that the formation of massive icebergs is a rare event, much like natural events that may occur once a century.

In this regard, a group of researchers from the University of Florida came up with a new idea to understand this phenomenon and the extent of the climate's impact on ice formation in Antarctica. The researchers published their study in the journal "Geophysical Research Letters" in November 2024.

Difficulties

The process of iceberg formation occurs slowly, and it most often begins with small cracks that spread across the ice shelf, eventually breaking away. Researchers can monitor the development of these cracks via satellites, but challenges remain due to their randomness, making it difficult to predict the timing of major calving events.

Solution

Using 47 years of satellite data, from 1976 to 2023, the researchers applied a type of statistical analysis called "extreme value," which is usually used when studying rare natural disasters. Considering that the formation of massive icebergs is rare, the researchers thought it was possible to apply that statistical analysis to those events as well, given their infrequency.

Findings

Researchers were able to build a model to predict the likelihood of avalanches and their sizes. They found that the size of the iceberg formed as a result of an avalanche over a decade could reach 6,100 square kilometres, which is relatively small for mountains. In the case of massive avalanches that occur once a century, their area could reach about 45,000 square kilometres.

The authors of the study also believe that the landslides that form massive icebergs do not necessarily have to be linked to climate change, and they likely fall within larger and deeper natural cycles.