A Foreign Policy report has highlighted significant challenges facing Europe’s ambitious plans to reduce emissions and combat climate change
The report cites an example from a small Italian town where opposition effectively halted key green energy development projects. In July, the local government in the Italian region of Sardinia suspended the construction of hundreds of new wind turbines, claiming that these would mar the island’s beautiful landscape. In October, the government announced its intention to prohibit all new wind farms, extending the ban to include solar panels.
These decisions followed increasing protests from large groups of activists who opposed renewable energy projects, advocating instead for the use of natural gas to generate electricity. In August, unknown assailants set fire to two wind farms slated for installation in northern Sardinia. Similar attacks also destroyed solar panels intended for local agricultural land.
Under its new plans, Sardinia is now focusing on developing natural gas infrastructure while delaying the closure of coal-fired power plants, which currently supply more than 60% of the electricity needed by the island's 1.6 million residents.
A Painful Blow
The opposition to renewables in Sardinia presents a setback for other local governments in Italy, which are grappling with difficult decisions on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This situation also poses a major challenge for the central government in Rome, as well as for the European Union and its ambitious European Green Deal.
The ongoing battle in Sardinia exemplifies the struggles faced by European countries in achieving their decarbonization goals. Countries like France, Germany, and Spain have encountered similar resistance to renewable projects in recent years, raising doubts about whether a key element of the EU’s green strategy can be successfully implemented. This will test the new European Commission’s resolve to make adequate progress in the coming term.
“The Commission’s legacy will depend on its ability to advance vital green policies amid a maelstrom of political and domestic discontent,” remarks Mats Engström, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
The European Green Deal, a policy framework designed to achieve climate neutrality—meaning complete decarbonization—by 2050, was approved in 2020. Subsequent legislation called for a 55% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and the EU institutions are currently evaluating the feasibility of an intermediate target of a 90% reduction by 2040, also proposed by the Commission.
In addition to renewable energy production and usage, other policies aim to restore Europe’s biodiversity, create a more sustainable food system, and establish a well-functioning circular economy, all while making industries greener. These initiatives will impact all sectors of the bloc’s economy—households, industry, services, and agriculture—aiming to enhance global competitiveness.
Risks
Analysts at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel published an October report identifying four areas of risk that could undermine the EU’s climate goals, which appear to be interconnected: geo-economic instability, technological progress, rising inequality, and policy credibility.
“A global economy burdened by increased trade disputes and a heightened risk of conflict jeopardizes the significant capital investments required for the transition, while the cost of clean technologies is critical for the economic viability of decarbonization,” the analysts stated. “Climate policies will profoundly impact people’s daily lives, necessitating safeguards against regressive outcomes while maintaining a firm commitment to established climate policy pillars,” they added.
In a report released in September, the European Commission—the EU’s executive body—highlighted several key achievements. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU have decreased by 32.5% from a 1990 baseline, while the European economy has grown by 67% during the same period, demonstrating a decoupling of growth from emissions.
However, the Commission cautioned that although the installation of renewable energy plants has reached record levels in recent years, the pace of achieving the EU’s energy efficiency and renewable energy targets must accelerate further to ensure those goals are met.
Geopolitical Challenges
The EU executive has highlighted significant challenges to the continent's competitiveness. These include increasing competition from China, substantial energy price differences compared to industrial rivals like the United States, and potential strategic dependence on clean energy technologies. At the same time, European citizens are facing high energy bills, and rising living costs are further reducing their purchasing power. As a result, there is a risk of divided public opinion regarding the importance and necessity of transitioning to cleaner energy sources.
Additionally, disruptions to clean technology supply chains caused by escalating trade tensions between major trading blocs could hinder the continent's energy transition. Broader economic shocks that raise interest rates or restrict the fiscal capacity of European countries may also slow down the energy transition and increase its costs.
Growing geopolitical instability, including concerns about the re-election of former US President Donald Trump, could lead to higher defense spending by European nations, thereby limiting their fiscal space for financing the energy transition. Furthermore, the slower development of technologies necessary for achieving a zero-emission economy poses additional challenges, as many of these technologies have not yet been proven on a large scale.
The green transformation envisioned by the EU will require the support of all its member governments and citizens to overcome these risks. European leaders must ensure the rapid and comprehensive implementation of existing EU legislation while minimizing political concessions to various groups that oppose the necessary changes.
